Paulie asked a question so here is my attempt at an answer.
At the bottom of it all, I’d ask the same question to you as I’d ask generic bloggertarians: Do you think that the demands for ID cards in particular, and ‘statism’ in general are the product of the totalitarian instincts of ‘socialist’ politicians, or the dynamic between representative democracy (regardless of the political colouring at any given moment) and budget-maximising bureaucrats?
So two competing theories to explain the way that we got into the state we are in.
a. The theory of historical development.
The changes to the state are driven by a dialectic between empire building bureaucrats and the poor tax payers that have to pay for them.
b. The bloggertarian approach.
Its all the politicians fault, hang them all.
My answer is, a bit of both but maybe more the latter than the former but niether exclusively. Its just that I don't see choosing one or the other is particularly useful. If I had to choose one or the other I would go for the latter. I guess this makes me ahistorical.
Here is why I don't think a theory of historical development is needed to choose a waypoint to aim at.
a. If Statism comes primarily from empire building bureaucrats then the best way to curb it would be to get rid of as many bureaucrats as possible. The only way to do this is reducing the need for bureaucrats by reducing the number of functions that they carry out by handing these back to competing non-state bodies and individuals.
b. If Statism comes primarily from the Statist instincts of certain groups of politicians once they gain power, then the best way to curb it is by removing the levers of power that they can use to put their instincts into practice from their grasp. By handing these functions back to competing non-state bodies and individuals, so they cannot be turned to authoritarian purposes.
Not having a big robust theory I prefer to try and argue with evidence rather than theory where possible, so here is a bit of data.
This is a simple graph to give some indicative trends so as to find whether the historical theory or the bloggertarian approach fits better. It was created by using the data from British Historical Statistics by B. R, Mitchell (ISBN 0 521 33008 4): table Public Finance 3. Gross Public Income - United Kingdom 1801-1980 for the total government income and table National Accounts 5. Gross National Product and National Income by Category of Expenditure at Current Prices - United Kingdom 1830 -1980 to get the Gross Domestic Product at Market Prices. Have a look at some of the features on the graph.
a. If the theory of historical development that Paulie outlined was correct then you would expect to see a slow but steady increase in the state's appetite for tax payers money as the bureaucratic empires grew, punctuated by the two world wars as spikes and a few tax payer revolts as troughs. There is a small problem here, that trend does not exist. In the early period of the graph there is a steady reduction in the size of the government compared to the rest of the economy. The graph is flat or falling more often than when it goes upwards however when it goes up it goes up fast.
b. As for his anti-thesis, the supposed Bloggertarian explanation that Socialist politicians have a lot to do with it, that would indicate that when a set of Socialist politicians gained a measure of power then there would be a spike. This phenomena can be seen several times. The post World War 1 strike period, the way the Atlee years form a high plateau which falls away once they loose power, and most obviously with the first election of Harold Wilson.
I don't have to statistical tools to prove anything, but Paulie's theory of historical development actually seems to fit the available data less well than its Bloggertarian anti-thesis. Not that that is a perfect fit either.
So there you go. The outlined theories of historical development is not needed to decide political waypoint for steering towards a more liberal society. Trying to get a much smaller state forms a good waypoint whether you have one or not. Nor does the proposed system of historical development seem to actually fit the past data very well, which throws doubt on it having much power for predicting a correct course in future. Not that I have data which is good enough to prove anything either way making fence sitting still the best course of (in-)action.
Public Choice Theory and other aspects of economics are certainly useful, but so is understanding the importance of individuals and their ideologies. I do not think that any of these chaotic systems are understood well enough to form a theory of general historical development with much predictive power beyond some, potentially useful, rules of thumb. We certainly don't have enough data to actually run the model even if we had one. So I think that I shall remain ahistorical for the time being. Pointing to all the bad stuff the state does and the large amount of evidence that monopolies don't do things very well, but competition makes things evolve to be better, will have to do for the time being.